Roadmap confidence levels, features and development stages

Lucy

My engineers read the roadmap this week. Their first question: which of these are we actually building, and how sure are we? Themes alone don't tell them.

You

Module 1 promised us the extras for exactly this moment: features, stage, confidence, target customers, product areas.

Alex Tutor

The secondary components. Same rule as then: add one only when a particular reader needs it. Lucy's team needs to know what's being built, so start with features.

You

But we spent weeks taking features off the page.

Alex Tutor

We took them off as the goal. They can come back as answers. A feature on an outcome-based roadmap always sits under the theme it serves, so the “why” stays visible above it.

You

So the reminders never stand alone in Now. They sit under “never run out”.

Alex Tutor

Question 1

Where do the reorder reminders go on version 3 of CatChow's roadmap?

Choose one answerIn Now as an item of their own, next to the themeIn place of the theme “Subscribers never run out between deliveries”, since the team is building themNowhere: an outcome-based roadmap never shows featuresUnder the theme “Subscribers never run out between deliveries”, as a probable solution

Alex Tutor

There are three common reasons a feature appears. A probable solution: evidence points strongly to one answer. Reminders, for instance: support hears the problem, and the cancellations confirm it.

Enabling work: a system need engineering has already turned into a concrete solution, like the warehouse replacement. And carryover: something started earlier and not yet finished.

You

Do we have carryover? The reminder emails, I think: Lucy's team started them in September.

Brandon

Then put the clinic portal under the clinic theme too. Everyone knows that's the answer.

Alex Tutor

Not yet: the pilot exists to find the answer. Today the portal is one candidate among several. Once the pilot points to it, it becomes a probable solution.

You

So “someone important wants it” isn't one of the three reasons.

Alex Tutor

It isn't. Neither is “a competitor has it”. Those are reasons to look at the need, not to put the feature on the page.

Alex Tutor

Question 2

Which of these are good reasons for a feature to appear under a theme on the roadmap? Select all that apply.

Choose all that applyThe founders like itEvidence points strongly to it as the solutionA theme can't move forward without it, and engineering has already vetted itA competitor launched it last monthThe Next column looks empty without itThe team started it last quarter and hasn't finished it

You

Lucy's engineers also asked whether the clinic theme is being built or still discussed.

Alex Tutor

That's stage of development: how far an item has come, from problem to solution. Pick a few stages that fit your team, and define each one once.

You

Let me try. Exploring: we're studying the problem. Testing: a few customers try a solution. Building: the solution is chosen and in development. Refining: it's live, and we adjust it while watching the signal.

Alex Tutor

Good set: short, and each stage tells the reader something different. Stage also shows what's still a theme: in Exploring there's no feature to name yet.

You

So the new-owner theme is Exploring, the clinic theme is Testing from November, and the reminders are Building.

Alex Tutor

And sales can read it directly: Exploring means don't mention it to clients, Building means it's safe to prepare.

Alex Tutor

Question 3

Match each stage of development on CatChow's roadmap to what it tells a reader.

Tap an answer, then tap the row it belongs to. You can also drag.

Exploring
Testing
Building
Refining

Answers left to place

Alex Tutor

The second question from Lucy's team: how sure are we? That's confidence: how likely an item is to happen in its timeframe, in roughly that form.

You

Don't the columns already say that? Now is surer than Later.

Alex Tutor

They imply it. Written down, it's impossible to miss: say, Now about 80%, Next about 50%, Later about 20%. Nobody should ever claim 100%.

Lucy

Per column, fine. But please don't make me put 73% on the warehouse. I'd be making it up, and people would treat it as measured.

Alex Tutor

Fair point. A precise number looks like data when it's really a gut feeling. That's false precision, and it makes a plan look surer than it is.

An alternative is evidence levels: what do we actually have? Our own opinion, a few requests, a pattern in the data, or results from customers who tried it.

You

So “Testing in two clinics, first results in December” says more than “73%”.

Alex Tutor

Question 4

Giving each roadmap item a precise confidence percentage, such as 73%, makes the plan more trustworthy.

TrueFalse

You

Now still holds more than Lucy's team can surely finish by December.

Alex Tutor

Then draw a confidence line inside Now. Above it: what the team commits to this quarter. Below it: what they'll reach for if things go well.

You

And if the items below the line don't happen?

Alex Tutor

They move to the top of Next, and nobody has broken a promise. Everyone could see in advance which items were the bonus.

You

Reminders, the pilot and the warehouse work above the line. Flexible delivery dates below?

Alex Tutor

That's how I'd draw it. Check it with Lucy, though: she knows her team's capacity better than either of us.

Alex Tutor

Question 5

What does it mean when an item sits below the confidence line in Now?

Choose one answerThe team commits to finishing it this quarterIt has been dropped from the roadmapThe team will reach for it if things go well; if it doesn't happen, it moves to the top of NextIt stays hidden from stakeholders until it's finished

Brandon

Can the clinic items be marked somehow? When a clinic director calls me, I want to find what concerns her in a second.

Alex Tutor

That's target customers: tag each theme with the group it serves, such as subscribers, new owners or partner clinics. It also shows whether some group is quietly being neglected.

You

And product areas?

Alex Tutor

Product areas tag the part of the product: subscriptions, clinic ordering, warehouse and delivery. Useful when several teams own different parts. For one small team, it's often just more ink.

You

So each reader gets different extras. Lucy: features and stages. Brandon: target customers and stages.

Alex Tutor

And Ian and the board: confidence per column and little else. Add everything for everyone, and the page reads like a project plan again.

Alex Tutor

Question 6

Brandon uses the internal roadmap to prepare for calls with clinic directors. Which secondary components help him most?

Choose one answerTarget customers and stage of developmentProduct areas and a confidence percentage for each itemEvery candidate feature with a target dateNone: sales shouldn't see stages or confidence

Lucy

One more thing. For the two Now items my team is sure about, I'll give target dates: the reminder emails in the second half of November, the pilot's first review in early December.

Ian

Dates! Finally. And the warehouse?

You

Not yet. Lucy's team will know after the data-migration test in November.

Alex Tutor

That's the deal from the first week: target dates only where confidence is high, and only in Now. A date anywhere else is a guess people will remember as a promise.

You

Brandon will ask why the reminders get a date and his clinic rollout doesn't.

Alex Tutor

He will. Write him an answer he can accept: why these two, why not the rollout, and when he'll know more.

Alex Tutor

Question 7Short answer · AI-checked task

Brandon asks why the reminder emails get a target date while the rollout to all 14 PurrPoint clinics doesn't. Write Sofia's reply (2–3 sentences).

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You

For Next I still have “about 50%”. Can I say something more useful about the new-owner theme?

Alex Tutor

Say what the confidence rests on. What do you know for sure, and what is still a guess?

You

We know the 250 calls a month are real. We don't know yet whether a quiz or advice from support would help more.

Alex Tutor

Then that's your note: the problem is proven, the solution is open. One or two sentences, no percentage.

Alex Tutor

Question 8Short answer · AI-checked task

Write the confidence note for the Next theme “New owners pick the right food on their first order” (1–2 sentences), based on evidence rather than a percentage.

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Alex Tutor

Time to put the module together. Version 3: themes rebuilt from needs, the columns with their meaning and confidence, and the extras your readers asked for.

You

Who is it for? Lucy's team, Brandon and Ian each want different extras.

Alex Tutor

One internal version for everyone at CatChow. Choose the extras most readers need, and say which one you leave out and why.

You

Features only under themes, dates only on the two sure items, a stage for everything.

Alex Tutor

And the disclaimer, updated. Check each theme once more: need, objective, key result.

Alex Tutor

Question 9Case · AI-checked task

Write version 3 of CatChow's roadmap.

It's the end of October. The board has backed the direction, and Sofia is writing version 3 of CatChow's roadmap: the internal version everyone at the company reads. Here is what she has.

Vision: every cat eats the right food, and neither owners nor vet clinics ever have to worry about running out.

Objectives and key results (targets for the end of next year)

Grow subscription revenue by keeping subscribers longer: monthly churn from 9% to 6%; cancellations citing running out or delivery timing from 30% to 15%; second orders within 60 days from 38% to 45%.
Grow the vet clinic channel: all 14 PurrPoint clinics retained; prescription-diet stock-outs from 6 a month to 1; partner clinics from 54 to 80.

Customer needs found this month

Subscribers notice too late that the food is running low; deliveries don't always fit their schedule.
New owners: support gets about 250 calls a month from owners unsure which food to choose. Nobody has tested yet whether a quiz or advice would help more.
Clinic admins (from Brandon's visit) count shelves by eye, dictate orders by phone, wait two or three days and find mistakes only when the box is opened.
Some long-term subscribers say they stay only for the price (a few comments, no data).

Work and timing

Lucy's team is building reorder reminder emails, started in September; target: the second half of November.
A pilot in two PurrPoint clinics starts in November, with a first review in early December. It tests which ordering solution works; the clinic ordering portal is one candidate.
The warehouse system must be replaced before the pilot grows past two clinics. The work is under way; Lucy will give it a date after a data-migration test in November.
Flexible delivery dates are wanted but may not fit this quarter.
The national veterinary conference is on 23 May.

Other spreadsheet rows: food-picker quiz, one-click reorder, loyalty points (the founders' favorite), dark mode, birthday greetings for cats, a monthly cat photo contest, a mobile app.

Readers: Lucy's engineers want to know what's being built; Brandon wants to find clinic items fast; Ian and the board want to know how sure the plan is.

Write version 3 (250–450 words):

Timeframes with their calendar meaning and confidence per column.
Themes as customer needs, each linked to an objective and a key result, with subthemes where useful; include the warehouse as a system need.
The secondary components you chose (stage, target customers, features, target dates), where each applies, and one you left out and why.
A confidence line in Now.
The rows you left off and why, and an updated internal disclaimer.

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You

Lucy's team sees what's being built and how sure we are. Brandon finds his clinics in a second. Ian gets dates where they're safe.

Alex Tutor

Each extra answers a question a real reader asked. That's the test for adding one.

Alex Tutor

That wraps up module 3. In module 4 we'll decide what actually fits in Now: criteria, scoring and saying no, starting with the loyalty points the founders keep asking about.

Alex Tutor

That’s the lesson. You answered every task — nicely done.

Next lesson: Why gut feeling fails: criteria and bias