The LTV curve
Cumulative gross profit per cohort user by month, how to read it, and when a young cohort can be extrapolated.
Lesson 26 of 32~20 min of learningIncludes ~12 min for questions and tasks
Contents1 of 33 steps
1 of 33 steps
Theo
I'm planning the summer budget for paid social. What is a new Halves user worth? I need a number to bid against.
Alex Tutor
The honest question is "worth how much by when". We answer it with an LTV curve: for each monthly cohort, the cumulative gross profit per user, month by month since sign-up.
🦉
You
Why gross profit and not revenue?
Alex Tutor
The store commission, payments and receipt scanning take 20% before Halves sees a cent, and Theo's bids are paid from what's left. Also divide by every user in the cohort, not just payers: Theo pays for installs, and most installs never subscribe.
Alex Tutor
Dataset · 150 rows
Halves cohorts by month since sign-up, January 2025 – June 2026
Months 0–11 of every monthly cohort; young cohorts have fewer rows. Data to 30 June 2026.
- Columns
- cohort
- Sign-up month
- cohort_users
- Users who signed up that month (staff excluded)
- month_since_signup
- Age of the cohort: 0 is the sign-up month
- paying_users
- Cohort users with an active paid plan that month
- revenue_usd
- Revenue from the cohort that month, USD
- gross_profit_usd
- Revenue minus store commission, payment and receipt-scanning costs (80% of revenue)
Data
| cohort | cohort_users | month_since_signup | paying_users | revenue_usd | gross_profit_usd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 0 | 110 | 1166.90 | 933.52 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 1 | 132 | 648.96 | 519.17 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 2 | 136 | 525.01 | 420.01 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 3 | 136 | 479.06 | 383.25 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 4 | 135 | 459.11 | 367.29 |
Show 145 more rows
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 5 | 135 | 391.15 | 312.92 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 6 | 134 | 353.18 | 282.54 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 7 | 134 | 349.19 | 279.35 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 8 | 134 | 319.20 | 255.36 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 9 | 135 | 349.19 | 279.35 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 10 | 136 | 323.19 | 258.55 |
| 2025-01 | 2539 | 11 | 138 | 331.17 | 264.94 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 0 | 114 | 1208.86 | 967.09 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 1 | 135 | 656.94 | 525.55 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 2 | 139 | 532.99 | 426.39 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 3 | 137 | 479.06 | 383.25 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 4 | 136 | 459.11 | 367.29 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 5 | 134 | 383.17 | 306.54 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 6 | 135 | 379.18 | 303.34 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 7 | 135 | 345.20 | 276.16 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 8 | 135 | 315.21 | 252.17 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 9 | 136 | 345.20 | 276.16 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 10 | 138 | 323.19 | 258.55 |
| 2025-02 | 2599 | 11 | 140 | 331.17 | 264.94 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 0 | 114 | 1208.86 | 967.09 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 1 | 140 | 676.89 | 541.51 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 2 | 143 | 548.95 | 439.16 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 3 | 143 | 503.00 | 402.40 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 4 | 142 | 483.05 | 386.44 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 5 | 138 | 399.13 | 319.30 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 6 | 137 | 361.16 | 288.93 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 7 | 137 | 383.17 | 306.54 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 8 | 137 | 323.19 | 258.55 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 9 | 138 | 353.18 | 282.54 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 10 | 138 | 323.19 | 258.55 |
| 2025-03 | 2677 | 11 | 140 | 331.17 | 264.94 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 0 | 131 | 1380.69 | 1104.55 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 1 | 157 | 754.76 | 603.81 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 2 | 161 | 600.82 | 480.66 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 3 | 158 | 542.90 | 434.32 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 4 | 157 | 522.95 | 418.36 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 5 | 155 | 473.01 | 378.41 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 6 | 153 | 453.06 | 362.45 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 7 | 153 | 415.09 | 332.07 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 8 | 153 | 381.11 | 304.89 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 9 | 154 | 381.11 | 304.89 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 10 | 154 | 351.12 | 280.90 |
| 2025-04 | 3011 | 11 | 155 | 355.11 | 284.09 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 0 | 134 | 1418.66 | 1134.93 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 1 | 163 | 800.71 | 640.57 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 2 | 167 | 616.78 | 493.42 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 3 | 165 | 562.85 | 450.28 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 4 | 165 | 546.89 | 437.51 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 5 | 163 | 522.95 | 418.36 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 6 | 162 | 477.00 | 381.60 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 7 | 163 | 469.02 | 375.22 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 8 | 162 | 401.06 | 320.85 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 9 | 162 | 397.07 | 317.66 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 10 | 162 | 367.08 | 293.66 |
| 2025-05 | 3131 | 11 | 163 | 375.07 | 300.06 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 0 | 173 | 1834.27 | 1467.42 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 1 | 194 | 936.50 | 749.20 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 2 | 187 | 700.70 | 560.56 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 3 | 175 | 572.89 | 458.31 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 4 | 164 | 509.05 | 407.24 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 5 | 153 | 419.21 | 335.37 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 6 | 148 | 357.30 | 285.84 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 7 | 147 | 341.34 | 273.07 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 8 | 146 | 273.38 | 218.70 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 9 | 148 | 277.37 | 221.90 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 10 | 152 | 303.34 | 242.67 |
| 2025-06 | 5651 | 11 | 156 | 319.31 | 255.45 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 0 | 176 | 1846.24 | 1476.99 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 1 | 200 | 1012.44 | 809.95 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 2 | 194 | 720.65 | 576.52 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 3 | 183 | 596.83 | 477.46 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 4 | 169 | 521.02 | 416.82 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 5 | 159 | 435.17 | 348.14 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 6 | 152 | 365.28 | 292.22 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 7 | 150 | 345.33 | 276.26 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 8 | 149 | 277.37 | 221.90 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 9 | 151 | 296.36 | 237.09 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 10 | 154 | 308.34 | 246.67 |
| 2025-07 | 5871 | 11 | 159 | 329.30 | 263.44 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 0 | 182 | 1922.18 | 1537.74 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 1 | 201 | 982.45 | 785.96 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 2 | 197 | 728.63 | 582.90 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 3 | 184 | 596.83 | 477.46 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 4 | 173 | 532.99 | 426.39 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 5 | 164 | 451.13 | 360.90 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 6 | 158 | 385.23 | 308.18 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 7 | 155 | 361.29 | 289.03 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 8 | 154 | 344.33 | 275.46 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 9 | 156 | 349.33 | 279.46 |
| 2025-08 | 5939 | 10 | 159 | 321.32 | 257.06 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 0 | 169 | 1766.31 | 1413.05 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 1 | 200 | 942.42 | 753.94 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 2 | 206 | 762.48 | 609.98 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 3 | 204 | 704.56 | 563.65 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 4 | 199 | 638.66 | 510.93 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 5 | 195 | 606.74 | 485.39 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 6 | 192 | 552.81 | 442.25 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 7 | 193 | 615.83 | 492.66 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 8 | 191 | 523.89 | 419.11 |
| 2025-09 | 3848 | 9 | 191 | 519.91 | 415.93 |
| 2025-10 | 3984 | 0 | 172 | 1830.28 | 1464.22 |
| 2025-10 | 3984 | 1 | 206 | 1010.38 | 808.30 |
| 2025-10 | 3984 | 2 | 211 | 792.47 | 633.98 |
| 2025-10 | 3984 | 3 | 209 | 704.56 | 563.65 |
| 2025-10 | 3984 | 4 | 203 | 634.67 | 507.74 |
| 2025-10 | 3984 | 5 | 201 | 610.73 | 488.58 |
| 2025-10 | 3984 | 6 | 199 | 631.79 | 505.43 |
| 2025-10 | 3984 | 7 | 198 | 616.84 | 493.47 |
| 2025-10 | 3984 | 8 | 197 | 564.89 | 451.91 |
| 2025-11 | 4221 | 0 | 179 | 1884.21 | 1507.37 |
| 2025-11 | 4221 | 1 | 216 | 1046.29 | 837.03 |
| 2025-11 | 4221 | 2 | 222 | 858.37 | 686.70 |
| 2025-11 | 4221 | 3 | 218 | 732.49 | 585.99 |
| 2025-11 | 4221 | 4 | 213 | 666.59 | 533.27 |
| 2025-11 | 4221 | 5 | 210 | 685.66 | 548.53 |
| 2025-11 | 4221 | 6 | 207 | 662.73 | 530.18 |
| 2025-11 | 4221 | 7 | 205 | 643.79 | 515.03 |
| 2025-12 | 4466 | 0 | 194 | 2022.06 | 1617.65 |
| 2025-12 | 4466 | 1 | 230 | 1116.18 | 892.94 |
| 2025-12 | 4466 | 2 | 235 | 894.28 | 715.42 |
| 2025-12 | 4466 | 3 | 231 | 768.40 | 614.72 |
| 2025-12 | 4466 | 4 | 226 | 789.50 | 631.60 |
| 2025-12 | 4466 | 5 | 221 | 720.60 | 576.48 |
| 2025-12 | 4466 | 6 | 218 | 698.67 | 558.94 |
| 2026-01 | 4646 | 0 | 203 | 2135.97 | 1708.78 |
| 2026-01 | 4646 | 1 | 241 | 1148.10 | 918.48 |
| 2026-01 | 4646 | 2 | 247 | 956.19 | 764.95 |
| 2026-01 | 4646 | 3 | 243 | 865.32 | 692.26 |
| 2026-01 | 4646 | 4 | 238 | 834.42 | 667.54 |
| 2026-01 | 4646 | 5 | 231 | 757.54 | 606.03 |
| 2026-02 | 5106 | 0 | 217 | 2295.83 | 1836.66 |
| 2026-02 | 5106 | 1 | 263 | 1271.92 | 1017.54 |
| 2026-02 | 5106 | 2 | 269 | 1133.03 | 906.42 |
| 2026-02 | 5106 | 3 | 268 | 999.13 | 799.30 |
| 2026-02 | 5106 | 4 | 261 | 918.26 | 734.61 |
| 2026-03 | 5395 | 0 | 236 | 2501.64 | 2001.31 |
| 2026-03 | 5395 | 1 | 282 | 1585.78 | 1268.62 |
| 2026-03 | 5395 | 2 | 289 | 1235.89 | 988.71 |
| 2026-03 | 5395 | 3 | 287 | 1093.00 | 874.40 |
| 2026-04 | 5504 | 0 | 239 | 3292.61 | 2634.09 |
| 2026-04 | 5504 | 1 | 284 | 1747.76 | 1398.21 |
| 2026-04 | 5504 | 2 | 291 | 1377.87 | 1102.30 |
| 2026-05 | 5987 | 0 | 264 | 3627.36 | 2901.89 |
| 2026-05 | 5987 | 1 | 314 | 1937.52 | 1550.02 |
| 2026-06 | 12904 | 0 | 381 | 5261.19 | 4208.95 |
Alex Tutor:
Start with the January 2026 cohort: add its gross profit for months 0 to 5 and divide by its users.
Alex Tutor
Question 1
What is the LTV of the January 2026 cohort at month 5: cumulative gross profit for months 0–5 per cohort user? Round to cents.
Units: USD, e.g. 1.25
Alex Tutor
Chart data
| Months since sign-up | January 2025 | July 2025 | January 2026 | April 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| 1 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| 2 | 0.74 | 0.49 | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| 3 | 0.89 | 0.57 | 0.88 | |
| 4 | 1.03 | 0.64 | 1.02 |
Show 7 more rows
| 5 | 1.16 | 0.7 | 1.15 | |
| 6 | 1.27 | 0.75 | ||
| 7 | 1.38 | 0.8 | ||
| 8 | 1.48 | 0.83 | ||
| 9 | 1.59 | 0.87 | ||
| 10 | 1.69 | 0.92 | ||
| 11 | 1.79 | 0.96 |
Alex Tutor:
Here are four cohorts. January 2025 and January 2026 lie almost on top of each other. July 2025 runs lower and flattens: trip groups subscribe for one holiday and cancel.
🦉
You
April 2026 starts higher than everyone: $0.48 in its first month against $0.37.
Maya
Is that the new onboarding? It shipped in April.
Alex Tutor
Check people before money. In month 0, 4.34% of the April cohort paid and 4.37% of March's. Gross profit per payer was $11.02 against $8.48.
Alex Tutor
Question 2
In month 0 the April 2026 cohort earned $0.48 per user against $0.37 for March, with the same share paying. What best explains the gap?
Maya
For the board I need a 12-month LTV for the January 2026 cohort. It's only six months old.
Alex Tutor
Don't draw a straight line through six points and keep going. Borrow the shape from an older cohort that has lived twelve months under the same conditions.
Alex Tutor:
January 2025 reached $1.1564 at month 5 and $1.7945 at month 11. The ratio, 1.5518, says how much a winter cohort still grows between those ages.
🦉
You
And February to May 2025 give ratios from 1.543 to 1.556, so it's stable across winter cohorts.
Alex Tutor
That's what makes it usable. Multiply January 2026's month-5 value by it.
Alex Tutor
Question 3
Project the 12-month LTV (month 11) of the January 2026 cohort: its month-5 LTV times the January 2025 ratio of month-11 to month-5 LTV. Round to cents.
Units: USD, e.g. 1.25
Theo
Why not use July 2025? It's the biggest cohort, so it's the most reliable.
Alex Tutor
Size doesn't fix a different kind of user. July's ratio is 1.37, and it would put January 2026 at $1.59, twenty cents lower. Its users are mostly trip groups who cancel when the trip ends.
🦉
You
So the template has to match the cohort, not just be big.
Alex Tutor
Yes. And April 2026 can't be projected with any 2025 cohort as it is: prices changed, so its dollars grow differently even if its people behave the same.
Alex Tutor
Question 4
To extrapolate a young cohort, the biggest older cohort makes the best template, whatever month it signed up in.
Alex Tutor
Four checks before you extrapolate. The template has actually reached the target age. It came through the same season, prices and plans. Several comparable cohorts agree. And you stop at the oldest age you've observed.
🦉
You
So no "lifetime" number. The table stops at month 11, and winter curves still add about ten cents a month there.
Alex Tutor
Right. Call it a 12-month LTV and give the range the comparable cohorts allow.
Alex Tutor
Question 5
Which facts make the January 2025 → January 2026 projection trustworthy? Select all that apply.
Maya
Give me something I can put on a slide.
Alex Tutor
Write it with its age, its method and its caveats. Theo will read it too, before he bids.
Alex Tutor
Question 6Short answer · AI-checked task
Write Maya 3–4 sentences for the board slide: the 12-month LTV of the January 2026 cohort, how you got it, and what could make it wrong.
Write your answer and get a score with feedback from our AI reviewer.
Log in to get AI feedbackAlex Tutor:
An LTV without an age is a guess dressed as a fact. Say how old the cohort is, what you multiplied it by, and why that template fits.
Alex Tutor
That’s the lesson. You answered every task — nicely done.