ARPU vs ARPPU and trial-to-paid conversion

Maya

June numbers are in, and ARPU dropped from $0.58 to $0.53. We shipped the new paywall design in May. Did we break something?

Alex Tutor

Before we blame the paywall, let's check what ARPU divides by. ARPU is the month's revenue divided by all active users, paying or not. ARPPU divides the same revenue by paying users only.

Alex Tutor

\text{ARPU} = \frac{\text{revenue}}{\text{active users}} \qquad \text{ARPPU} = \frac{\text{revenue}}{\text{paying users}}

Same revenue, two different denominators.

You

One numerator, two denominators. So if lots of free users arrive, ARPU drops even when nobody pays less?

Alex Tutor

Exactly. Here are the Halves Plus numbers for the first half of 2026. Work out June's ARPPU from them.

Alex Tutor

Dataset · 6 rows

Halves Plus by month, January–June 2026

Active users, paying users, first payments and revenue per calendar month.

Download CSV

Columns
month: Calendar month
active_users: Users who opened the app in the month (staff excluded)
paying_users: Users with an active paid Halves Plus plan in the month
new_subscribers: First payments made in the month
revenue_usd: Revenue billed in the month, USD; a yearly plan counts in full when paid

Data

month	active_users	paying_users	new_subscribers	revenue_usd
2026-01	18644	2248	370	8867.01
2026-02	20304	2475	389	9715.47
2026-03	22025	2737	426	10765.62
2026-04	23680	3012	444	13312.68
2026-05	25704	3313	480	14940.54

Show 1 more row

2026-06

34365

3730

614

18073.25

Alex Tutor

Question 1

Use the monthly table. What was Halves Plus ARPPU in June 2026? Round to cents.

Your answer

Units: USD, e.g. 4.25

Alex Tutor

ARPPU went from $4.51 in May to $4.85 in June, and revenue grew 21%. So payers didn't pay less. What fell?

You

The share of active users who pay: 3,313 of 25,704 in May, 3,730 of 34,365 in June.

Alex Tutor

That's 12.89% and 10.85%. June is trip season: friends install Halves for one holiday and rarely subscribe. ARPU is paying share times ARPPU, so it can fall while every payer pays more.

Alex Tutor

\text{ARPU} = \frac{\text{paying users}}{\text{active users}} \times \text{ARPPU}

June: 10.85% × $4.85 ≈ $0.53.

Maya

Fine, but why do payers pay more?

Alex Tutor

Mostly price: since 1 April new subscribers pay $4.99 a month instead of $3.99, and yearly plans went up too. That has nothing to do with the paywall design either.

Alex Tutor

Question 2

From May to June, ARPU fell from $0.58 to $0.53, ARPPU rose from $4.51 to $4.85 and revenue grew 21%. Which reading is right?

Choose one answerThe new paywall design made paying users spend lessMany new active users don't pay, so the paying share fell while payers paid moreRevenue fell, and ARPU shows it more honestly than ARPPUThe April price rise drove payers away, which pulled ARPU down

Alex Tutor

Two more ratios sit between the paywall and revenue. Conversion to paid is the share of a group, say everyone who saw the paywall, who made a first payment. Always say who is in the denominator.

Trial-to-paid conversion is the share of trials that have ended and turned into a first payment. A trial that's still running hasn't failed yet.

You

Halves has a 7-day trial and the data stops on 30 June. So trials from the last week of June are still open.

Alex Tutor

That's why the paywall table below has both trials_started and trials_ended. It splits every month by what opened the paywall.

Alex Tutor

Dataset · 12 rows

Paywall viewers and trials by trigger, April–June 2026

Data cut: 30 June 2026. Every user is counted once per month, under the trigger of their first paywall view.

Download CSV

Columns
month: Calendar month
trigger: What opened the paywall: receipt_scan, currency, charts or settings
paywall_viewers: Distinct users who saw the paywall from this trigger
trials_started: Of them, users who started the 7-day free trial
trials_ended: Trials that had ended by 30 June
trials_converted: Ended trials that turned into a first payment

Data

month	trigger	paywall_viewers	trials_started	trials_ended	trials_converted
2026-04	receipt_scan	2648	424	424	220
2026-04	currency	701	182	182	80
2026-04	charts	1509	136	136	54
2026-04	settings	1087	54	54	19
2026-05	receipt_scan	2405	373	373	190

Show 7 more rows

2026-05	currency	1409	359	359	154
2026-05	charts	1244	112	112	45
2026-05	settings	908	45	45	16
2026-06	receipt_scan	2304	346	265	135
2026-06	currency	2712	678	520	224
2026-06	charts	1116	95	73	28
2026-06	settings	760	38	29	10

Alex Tutor

Question 3

Use the paywall table. What was trial-to-paid conversion for June 2026 trials, all triggers together?

Your answer

Units: %, e.g. 12.5

Maya

Now the good news. Paywall-to-trial went from 13.4% in April to 16.8% in June. The new design works!

Alex Tutor

Look inside the total. Per trigger, the rate is flat or a little lower: receipt scans 16.0% then 15.0%, currency 26.0% then 25.0%. What changed is who sees the paywall.

You

The currency trigger. It's 39% of June viewers, up from 12% in April. People abroad need multi-currency, and a quarter of them start a trial.

Alex Tutor

That's a mix shift: the average moves because the mix of triggers moved, not because anyone behaves differently within a trigger.

Alex Tutor

Question 4

Compare April and June in the paywall table. Which statements does it support? Select all that apply.

Choose all that applyWithin each trigger, June's paywall-to-trial rate is about the same as April's or lowerThe new design raised trial starts among receipt-scan viewersThe currency trigger's share of viewers more than tripledThe overall rate rose mainly because the mix of triggers changedThe table proves the new design lowered conversion

Alex Tutor

To compare fairly, apply June's rate for each trigger to April's mix of viewers. If the design helped, the result should beat April's 13.4%.

You

A weighted average, then: each June rate times April's share of viewers for that trigger, and add the four products.

Alex Tutor

Yes. Keep four decimals in the shares and rates and the answer won't drift.

Alex Tutor

\text{rate}_{\text{June at April mix}} = \sum_{\text{trigger}} \text{share}_{\text{April}} \times \text{rate}_{\text{June}}

Alex Tutor

Question 5

Apply June's paywall-to-trial rate for each trigger to April's share of viewers per trigger. What overall rate do you get?

Your answer

Units: %, e.g. 12.5

Alex Tutor

At April's mix, June converts at 12.7%, below April's 13.4%. The data doesn't show the new design raised trial starts. It can't prove the design hurt either: it's a before-and-after comparison, not a test.

Maya

So what do I say at Friday's review?

Alex Tutor

Four sentences: what moved, why it moved, what the fair comparison shows, and what would settle the question.

Alex Tutor

Question 6Short answer · AI-checked task

Write Maya a note of 3–5 sentences for Friday's review: did the new paywall design raise paywall-to-trial conversion? Use the numbers from this lesson.

Write your answer and get a score with feedback from our AI reviewer.

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Today's rule: every revenue ratio has a denominator, and every denominator has a mix. Check both before you celebrate or panic. How subscribers leave, and how to count it, is in the glossary: churn rate.

Alex Tutor

That’s the lesson. You answered every task — nicely done.

Next lesson: The LTV curve